Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.376183 0.430414 0.489283 0.557877 0.635552 0.720727 0.821151
2025-08-10 0.284091 0.352935 0.433557 0.534738 0.658120 0.803475 0.987495
2025-08-17 0.215213 0.288599 0.380780 0.504628 0.666190 0.869274 1.143359
2025-08-24 0.171538 0.247167 0.348609 0.493821 0.695429 0.964386 1.349179
2025-08-31 0.138047 0.212961 0.319882 0.482342 0.721419 1.058475 1.567392
2025-09-07 0.117549 0.193296 0.307839 0.491766 0.777340 1.200832 1.872427
2025-09-14 0.094800 0.165904 0.279639 0.472286 0.787212 1.277357 2.091819
2025-09-21 0.079165 0.146938 0.261228 0.464744 0.813791 1.381918 2.367537
2025-09-28 0.066154 0.129927 0.243053 0.454326 0.833532 1.477377 2.640507
2025-10-05 0.059162 0.122398 0.239898 0.469093 0.897824 1.654104 3.071135
2025-10-12 0.051337 0.111777 0.229300 0.468472 0.934172 1.786573 3.440855
2025-10-19 0.045631 0.104288 0.223347 0.475517 0.985346 1.951271 3.888249
2025-10-26 0.040853 0.098100 0.219483 0.487190 1.049359 2.152009 4.436869
2025-11-02 0.034159 0.086362 0.202179 0.468520 1.050095 2.232078 4.764811
2025-11-09 0.028104 0.074812 0.183225 0.443114 1.032943 2.274410 5.023610
2025-11-16 0.024162 0.067531 0.172568 0.434371 1.050378 2.389893 5.448225
2025-11-23 0.020782 0.060930 0.162307 0.424781 1.064410 2.499891 5.875448
2025-11-30 0.018845 0.057752 0.159841 0.433552 1.122316 2.713196 6.555892
2025-12-07 0.015973 0.051313 0.147892 0.416564 1.115878 2.780644 6.916307
2025-12-14 0.013967 0.046919 0.140508 0.410078 1.134349 2.907970 7.431098
2025-12-21 0.012147 0.042655 0.132666 0.400975 1.144674 3.016985 7.915644
2025-12-28 0.011312 0.041318 0.132882 0.414198 1.215609 3.282763 8.813689
2026-01-04 0.010146 0.038611 0.128564 0.413724 1.249394 3.459449 9.510373